Estimate Your Risk
Model how likely a task is to go wrong using Urgency, Complexity, Importance, Skill, and Frequency.
How the calculator works
The interactive version lets you adjust each input and see the result change. Without JavaScript, this page still explains the assumptions behind the model.
- Urgency: how much time pressure surrounds the task.
- Complexity: how many moving parts can fail.
- Importance: how painful failure would be.
- Skill: how much experience reduces risk.
- Frequency: how repeated attempts increase exposure.
This calculator is for entertainment and lightweight planning, not engineering risk certification.
- Murphy's Law vs Sod's Law Why this calculator uses Sod’s framing.
- Work examples Deadline and meeting scenarios.
- Office laws Where pressure tends to break plans.